Exploring Defence Ties With S. Korea and Thailand

India wants to indigenously build four specialised amphibious assault ships, also called Landing Platform Docks (LPD) , which will be the biggest-ever made in the country other than the under-construction 40,000-tonne sea-borne aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. With such plans in mind Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar went on a three-day visit to South Korea. South Korea is the world biggest ship maker and a possible partner in the project.

Each LPD carries, in its huge lower deck, hundreds of troops with tanks, vehicles and cargo. Such a ship can deliver men and equipment near a sea beach and does not need a berthing dock, hence providing the option for landing thousands of troops near a spot chosen to attack.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) had re-issued a request for proposal (RFP) to Indian private sector shipyards in September last year. Each of these will approximately cost Rs 6,000 crore and are expected to be delivered over the next 10 years. Each of these ships will be between 35,000 and 40,000 tonnes. Indian shipyards have been asked to locate their own foreign collaborator. The RFP was sent to ABG, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), and Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering, the last one being recently purchased by Anil Ambani.

Foreign shipbuilders offering such ships include DCNS of France, Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, Fincantieri of Italy, South Korea’s Hanjin Heavy Industries & Constructions Co and Navantia of Spain.

The successful private shipyard and its foreign collaborator will be given the order for two such ships and the two others will be made by the MoD-owned Hindustan Shipyard Limited, Visakhapatnam, at the same price being paid to the private builder.

India has sought a vessel of 213m with endurance at sea for 45 days. The vessel must be able to house combat vehicles (including main battle tanks, infantry combat vehicles and heavy trucks on one or more vehicle deck) and the vessel should be able to undertake all-weather operations involving heavy lift helicopters up to 35 tonnes.

Parrikar said on 13 April, “Talks will include wide-ranging subjects including collaborations in defence products”. Capabilities of that country are known, he said. South Korea makes some 30 per cent of all ships worldwide. Parrikar clearly said that a government-to-government deal is the best in case of certain defence technologies.

In Korea, Parrikar met his South Korean counterpart Gen Han Min-Koo here and discussed ways to expand defence ties. Parrikar also met senior South Korean defence officlals, including National Security Advisor Kim Kwan-jin, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and minister of defence acquisition progremme administration.

The two countries agreed to intensify efforts to develop mutually-beneficial partnerships in defence production. A statement said the two defence ministers "focused on ways to expand contact" between the their defence establishments and building deep partnerships between their defence industries.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar paying homage at the National Cemetery, at Daejeon, in South Korea 

Exploring Joint Ventures with Thailand

India is exploring a joint production and development venture in defence with Thailand. A high-level defence delegation from Thailand led by its Permanent Secretary for Defence visited New Delhi in late March, to explore joint production and development, besides sourcing of arms.

The Indian side was keen to assist Thailand in setting up a defence industry and had proposed a visit to Indian facilities for the Thai side. While major platforms and systems will not be discussed now, a start can be made on systems that the ordnance factories manufacture - from explosives to small arms and defensive equipment, sources said.

Thailand was offering India an upgraded defence relationship. It is a strategically-placed neighbour with whom India shares common cultural linkages. India's joint defence production has so far been confined to Russia, France, the US and Israel. An upgraded Indo-Thai defence cooperation is also significant amid China's growing ambitions and defence manures in the region.

The Defence Ministry has been keen on engaging with Thailand. The first initiative was made in 2013 during a visit by then Defence Minister AK Antony in which he raised the matter of joint production with his Thai counterpart, Air Chief Marshal Sukumpol Suwanatat.

There has been a keen interest by the Thai side to engage with Indian scientists as well as learning from the experience of setting up defence production facilities.

Till now, the bilateral defence relation has been limited to joint exercises and training between the armed forces. Last year, General Tanasak Patimapragorn, Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) of the Royal Thai Armed Forces visited India.

Follow @IMR (https://twitter.com/IMRTweets) handle for comprehensive coverage on other buzzing Defence & Security stories.


Follow 'Indian Military Review' blog at http://stratkor.blogspot.in for latest, comprehensive and thought provoking Defence & Security stories.

Terrorism and Insurgency are No. 3 in Corporate Risks

Climb 7 Places in FICCI-Pinkerton’s Risk Survey

FICCI, in partnership with Pinkerton Corporate Risk Management, launched the India Risk Survey 2015 Report on March 27, 2015 during the Seminar 'New Age Risks – 2015' at Federation House, New Delhi. The objective of the report is to inform and sensitize all stakeholders about the emerging risks for the developing economies like India so that well-planned and strategic policy decisions can be made.

The India Risk Survey 2015 (IRS 2015) attempts to showcase the views and perceptions of key business leaders, public figures, as well as professionals across various sectors and geographies regarding operational, safety and strategic risks. The survey spreads across the entire industry spectrum covering the different geographical zones of the country. The survey results will provide the industry and Government decision-makers with a very important tool to holistically analyze the impact of various risks so as to plan and execute strategies to prevent, mitigate or control the impact of these risks to business establishments.

As evident, the survey encompasses 12 key risks that pose a threat to the entire economic system of the country; and though each risk is rated on a mutually exclusive basis for the purpose of the survey, a deeper reading would reveal their interconnectedness across domains.

Continuing with the trend evident from last year, the focus of the respondents for risk analysis continues to be on how the entire gamut of corruption, scams and corporate frauds are affecting the economy. In 2015, ‘Corruption, Bribery and Corporate Frauds’ continues to be ranked as the topmost risk. The recent news coverage and public uproar related to various cases involving major corporate houses, justifies this trend as having the highest mind recall value, and has also been assigned the greatest concern in recent times.

If one were to conduct a root-cause analysis of the major corporate frauds of recent times, a common cause that would emerge is pilferage of data / sensitive information. 

Information security is a growing concern keeping in mind the technological advancements and the tendency of corporate houses to create more and more intellectual property and competitive strategies. Any compromise with the same is interlinked with providing an opportunity for frauds and for the corporate to stand a risk of incurring unimaginable losses. The realization of every industry waking up to this as a looming threat is best defined through the ranking of ‘Information and Cyber Insecurity’ this year, which climbed up 3 positions from 2014 to be ranked at No. 2.

The entire gamut of risks faced by corporate houses has enabled a typical perception from respondents across the globe; they are concerned with both the gravest external threat and the most perceived internal threat.

Over the last few years in India, the rising threat of terror incidents in major cities has caused considerable alarm; the devastation from these incidents may have easily disrupted the entire business continuity structure of the land. This concern can also be said to be the fastest growing one amongst the Indian professionals and can be seen by the rise in ranking of the risk of ‘Terrorism and Insurgency’ from 10th position in 2014 to 3rd in 2015.

Similarly, when speaking of internal threat, the impact of business espionage can no longer be ignored. Recent occurrences only illustrate various modalities of insider threat and how it affects and compromises the health of a company. The rise in ranking of the risk of ‘Business Espionage’ from 9th position in 2014 to 4th in the current survey validates the stand to bring our attention to this shifting concern of business organization.

For any economy that faces the above-mentioned risks, the external threat or risk of ‘Crime’ cannot be ignored and the respondents to this survey have ranked the same at No. 5 in 2015. This is also supplemented by the growing instances of crime against women in India, which has not only come in for severe criticism within the country but has also been a topic of discussion in all international forums, affecting the image of India as a suitable business destination.

The analysis of the above illustration does indicate that the top five risks that impact Indian business environment include: ‘Corruption, Bribery, and Frauds’; ‘Information and Cyber Insecurity’; ‘Terrorism and Insurgency’; ‘Business Espionage’; and ‘Crime’. The risks of ‘Strikes, Closures and Unrest’ and ‘Political and Governance Instability’, which were earlier in the top five risk brackets, have dropped in the rankings from No. 2 and No. 3 positions to No. 6 and No. 11 respectively. This is a major shift in the yearly trends primarily due to the positive impact caused by a perceived stable Government coming to power at the Centre post the 2014 general elections.

Trends in Terrorism & Insurgency

•           Terrorism and insurgency related incidents saw a marginal increase in 2014.

•           The states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand recorded the most incidents related to Left Wing Extremism, whereas the majority of terror-related incidents were reported from Assam.

The Year-on-Year Ranking Story

Terrorism has been one of the growing concerns for the Indian sub-continent in recent times. After the year 2000, serious attempts were made to stop the growing menace and India has been successful in combating causalities caused by terrorism. Incidents like the Mumbai attack in 2008 and other recent insurgent attacks in various parts of the country seem to be pushing the trend upwards.

To turn our attention to the Global Rankings, India ranks 6th on the Global Terrorism Index of 2014 (as provided by the Institute of Economics and Peace) out of a surveyed base of 162 countries. Another study conducted by the same institute, titled Global Peace Index 2014, also highlights the need for India to work on its internal conflict issues.

Plunging Deep - Incidence Mapping

There have been a series of arrests, wherein 77 people were nabbed across the country in 2014, in connection with terrorist plots and subversive activities. India has been on the radar of terrorists throughout the year; sporadic terrorist activities were reported from the active regions. Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) reported an attack in March 2014, preceded by an ambush in Chhattisgarh; similar attacks were witnessed in Assam.

In 2013-14, 205 of the country's 640 districts continued to be afflicted by insurgent and terrorist activities, including 120 districts where the Maoists remained active; 20 districts in J&K were afflicted by Islamist separatist terrorism; and 65 districts in six north-eastern states where numerous terrorist and insurgent formations operate.

The analysis of the fatality pattern indicates that the Indian states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand remained most prone to the incidents of Left Wing Extremism during the last three years 2013 - 2015. More than 50 per cent of the total fatalities reported across India occurred in these two states. The Indian state of Assam witnessed the majority of incidents related to terrorism during the last three years, i.e., 2013 - 2015. The majority of fatalities were reported in 2014 from Assam which stood at 305 vis-a-vis 101 in 2013. Terror related deaths in the state of Jammu and Kashmir also saw a marginal increase in 2014 with a figure of 193 vis-a-vis 181 in 2013.

Terrorism and Insurgency - Impact and Combat

Between terrorism and insurgency, India has suffered on multiple fronts. Apart from creating a vulnerable domestic environment with skeptical citizens, terrorism also affects the way the world sees a country as a potential business opportunity.

Realizing this, the Indian Government has launched multiple policy and strategy-led initiatives in order to ensure a peaceful life for its citizens and also to provide for comfort when it comes to grooming the business landscape of the land.

Extracted from FICCI-Pinkerton India Risk Survey 2015, released at the New Age Risks 2015 Seminar held at FICCI on 27 March 2015 in New Delhi.

Follow @IMR (https://twitter.com/IMRTweets ) handle for comprehensive coverage on other buzzing Defence & Security stories.

Rail Link from Lhasa to Kathmandu

China plans to build a 540-kilometre strategic high-speed rail link between Tibet and Nepal passing through a tunnel under Mt Everest, a move that could raise alarm in India about the Communist giant's growing influence in its neighbourhood.

China is considering tunneling under Mount Everest to connect better with the South Asian markets. The extended rail line from the Tibet’s capital Lhasa to Kathmandu in Nepal, will reduce India’s influence in Nepal.

"A proposed extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to the China-Nepal border through Tibet would boost bilateral trade and tourism as there is currently no rail line linking the two countries," state-run China Daily reported on 9 April.

This was the first time a tunnel plan has been revealed because China had earlier discussed extending the Qinghai-Lhasa line to the Nepalese border without digging a tunnel.

The Lhasa line was extended to Xigaze, the second biggest city in Tibet, which is closer to the Nepalese border as Chinese authorities completed a 253-km long link railway line in August last year. 

The project would involve tacking on about 400 miles of rail to an already 1,200 mile track which takes 25 hours to traverse as it is. The move would provide easy transport in one of the trickiest terrains in the world, and increase China's influence in the region.

Historically, the mountain range that holds eight of the world's fourteen peaks that top 8,000 meters in altitude has served as a practical and cultural barrier. Nepal has long been in India's sphere of influence, but in recent years China has bought in to the struggling nation by investing in infrastructure such as roads and bridges.

Wang Mengshu, a rail expert at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that engineers will face a number of difficulties once the project begins.

"If the proposal becomes reality, bilateral trade, especially in agricultural products, will get a strong boost, along with tourism and people-to-people exchanges," he said.

"The changes in the elevation along the line are remarkable. The line is probably have to go through Qomolangma so that worker may have to dig some very long tunnels," Wang said. Qomolangma Mountain is the Tibetan name for Mt Everest.

As with any engineering project of this size, it is not without its opponents. The International Campaign for Tibet cautions that there are "dangerous implications for regional security and the fragile ecosystem of the world's highest and largest plateau."

Restrained by rugged Himalayan mountains with its "remarkable" changes in elevation, trains on the line would probably have a maximum speed of 120 kmph.

Wang said that the project is being undertaken at Nepal's request and that China has begun preparatory work.

Losang Jamcan, Chairman of the Tibet Autonomous Region, told Nepalese President Ram Baran Yadav during his visit to Tibet's provincial capital Lhasa that China plans to extend the Tibet railway to Kermug, the Chinese town nearest to Nepal border where a border trade port has been built.

During his recent visit to Nepal, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had asked the officials to conduct a feasibility study to extend the rail network to Kathmandu and beyond, the report said. According to state-run Chinese media outlets, Nepal has apparently responded favorably, requesting that the line be built. Besides Nepal, China had earlier announced plans to extend its Tibetan rail network to Bhutan and India.

Hu Shisheng, Director of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told official media that the aim of the rail line is to simply improve the local economies and people's livelihoods.

The feat would provide China with more influence over India's allies and neighbours as well as continue Beijing's plan to open up the Buddhist plateau of Tibet to tourism and modern Chinese culture.

Basically, a rail line from mainland China under the Himalayas would connect the nation to the billion plus inhabitants living below "The Roof of the World".

Comments

Prime Minister NarendraModi has made efforts to bolster the nation's regional pull, but the construction of a contiguous rail line between China and the Nepalese capitol Kathmandu would undermine his historical geographic advantage as early as 2020.

China has been scaling up its ties with Nepal much to the chagrin of India to stem the flow of Tibetans travelling through Nepal to meet the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala.

Beijing recently increased its annual aid to Nepal to USD 128 million from the previous USD 24 million.

The idea is to find a short route to Nepal in order to access the vast Indian market in a short time. China may be trying to involve Nepal in its Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar project because New Delhi has shown less enthusiasm for the BCIM project. 

If the proposal becomes reality, bilateral trade, especially in agricultural products, will get a strong boost, along with tourism and people-to-people exchanges. 

Potential link to India

From time to time, rumors of a land bridge to India and Bangladesh have appeared in various Chinese newspapers.

Although the Chinese government never planned an extension to India, many people have embarked on the possibility of this. Qinghai People's Congress Vice Secretary General Liu Palit is one of them. In an interview to 21st Century Business Herald, he supported a motion to establish a connection between the Pacific and Indian railway bridge on land, possibly linking the east coast port city of Lianyungang, eastern China, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Xining, Lhasa, Shigatse, through Nepal, and finally arriving in Patna, New Delhi, Mumbai and Karachi, Pakistan.

If the idea of the railway in Nepal's plains becomes reality, it can easily connect with the Indian railway network and further to Bangladesh.

Engineering Challenges

The QTR posed great engineering challenges. Working in the cold and in the high altitude with men and machines had to be addressed. Scores of workers were hospitalized due to exhaustion and altitude sickness. Others suffered from frostbite while working in the winter.

Four-fifths of the QTR is above 4,000 meters and over half the tracks were laid on ground that is frozen much of the year, with 345 miles on permafrost. The highest pass traversed by the train is 5,072 meters (16,737 feet). Parts of it climb through an earthquake zone in the Kunlun mountains. A magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck in 2001. Dozens of earthquake monitors have been installed along the railway.

About half of the second section of the QTR was built on permanent permafrost. In the summer, the uppermost layer thaws, and the ground becomes muddy. The heat from the trains passing above is able to melt the permafrost even with a small change in temperature. The main engineering challenge, aside from oxygen shortages, was the weakness of the permafrost. For areas of permafrost that are not very fragile, an embankment of large rocks was sufficient. Meanwhile, in the most fragile areas, the rail bed must be elevated like a bridge. The engineers dealt with this problem in the areas of weakest permafrost by building elevated tracks with pile-driven foundations sunk deep into the ground. Similar to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, portions of the track were also passively cooled with ammonia-based heat exchangers.

Special technology was developed to prevent the tracks from buckling when temperatures drop to -37oC and to keep bridges and tracks stable as the ground shifts when it freezes and thaws. The entire length of track is placed an average of 25 feet above the permafrost, separating it from the areas that freeze and thaw daily and preventing damaging warps, buckles and strains.

Much of the track is raised on causeways or cooled with pipes that circulate liquid nitrogen and cool air beneath the rails and keep them frozen throughout the year. Some sections have metal sunshades that deflect the sun. In tunnels the earth is frozen artificially with refrigeration devices. In some places cooling agents are pumped through pipes deep in the ground.

The train is pulled by three diesel-powered, 3,800-horsepower engines made by General Electric, USA. They have been adapted to carry 15 carriages and a generator car to altitudes of more than 5,000 meters, where the locomotives achieve only 60 percent of their usual power because of thin air. The carriages have underbellies that protect the wiring from sand and dust storms, and complex ventilation systems that draw in air and release nitrogen while oxygen is pumped in the compartments.

The integrity and strength of the railroad is not fully secure. Due to climate change, temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau will increase by an estimated two to three degrees Celsius. This change is sufficient to melt the permafrost and, thereby, affect the integrity of the entire system. The effects of climate change have yet to be seen.

The air in Tibet is much thinner, with oxygen partial pressure being 35 to 40 per cent below MSL. Special passenger carriages are used, and several oxygen factories were built along the railway. Each seat in the train is equipped with an oxygen supply outlet. The Chinese government claimed that no construction worker died during the construction due to altitude sickness related diseases but reality is different.